ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2022
The Impact of Quarantine and Medical Resources on the Control of COVID-19 in Wuhan based on a Household Model.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- COVID-19 transmission dynamics: age-specific patterns and super spreaders in South Korea.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Assessing the impact of different contact patterns on disease transmission: Taking COVID-19 as a case.PloS one · 2024Article
- Studying the impacts of variant evolution for a generalized age-group transmission model.PloS one · 2024Article
- Clinical Practice and Effectiveness Analysis of the Management of Corona Virus Disease 2019 Infected at Shanghai Fangcang Shelter Hospital: A Descriptive Study.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
In order to understand how Wuhan curbed the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, we build a network transmission model of 123 dimensions incorporating the impact of quarantine and medical resources as well as household transmission. Using our new model, the final infection size of Wuhan is predicted to be 50,662 (95%CI: 46,234, 55,493), and the epidemic would last until April 25 (95%CI: April 23, April 29), which are consistent with the actual situation. It is shown that quarantining close contacts greatly reduces the final size and shorten the epidemic duration. The opening of Fangcang shelter hospitals reduces the final size by about 17,000. Had the number of hospital beds been sufficient when the lockdown started, the number of deaths would have been reduced by at least 54.26%. We also investigate the distribution of infectious individuals in unquarantined households of different sizes. The high-risk households are those with size from two to four before the peak time, while the households with only one member have the highest risk after the peak time. Our findings provide a reference for the prevention, mitigation and control of COVID-19 in other cities of the world.
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