ArticleAlcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire)2022
Predicting the Impact of Alcohol Taxation Increases on Mortality-A Comparison of Different Estimation Techniques.
Article in Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Quantifying the potential of alcohol policies for cancer prevention in the EU: a modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2026Article
- Using a return on investment analysis to estimate the economic impact of potential changes to alcohol control policies in Estonia.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Alcohol Excise Taxation, Tax Share and Revenue in the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2022: An Overview and Modelling Analysis.Drug and alcohol review · 2025Article
- A return on investment analysis for the 2017 increase in alcohol excise taxation in Lithuania.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2025Article
- How does taxation affect liver cirrhosis across age groups? An analysis of alcohol control policies on liver cirrhosis outcomes in Lithuania between 2001 and 2022.Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire) · 2025Article
- Economic development, alcohol consumption and life expectancy in low- and lower-middle-income countries in the Western Pacific Region: a structural equation modelling study.BMJ public health · 2025Article
- Virtual patients with substance use disorders in healthcare professional education: a scoping review.Canadian medical education journal · 2024Article
- Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001-2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Alcohol, No Ordinary Commodity: policy implications for Canada.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2023Review
- Reducing alcohol use through alcohol control policies in the general population and population subgroups: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EClinicalMedicine · 2023Review
- Alcohol control policies reduce all-cause mortality in Baltic Countries and Poland between 2001 and 2020.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Classifying alcohol control policies enacted between 2000 and 2020 in Poland and the Baltic countries to model potential impact.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2023Article
- Article
- Are restrictions in sales hours of alcohol associated with fewer emergency room visits in Lithuania? An interrupted time-series analysis.Drug and alcohol review · 2023Article
- The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis.BMC medicine · 2023Article
- Using Direct and Indirect Estimates for Alcohol-Attributable Mortality: A Modelling Study Using the Example of Lithuania.European addiction research · 2023Article
- Do alcohol control policies have the predicted effects on consumption? An analysis of the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2022Article
- The temporal trend of cause-specific mortality: comparing Estonia and Lithuania, 2001 - 2019.BMC public health · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
aimsTo examine how standard analytical approaches to model mortality outcomes of alcohol use compare to the true results using the impact of the March 2017 alcohol taxation increase in Lithuania on all-cause mortality as an example.
methodsFour methodologies were used: two direct methodologies: (a) interrupted time-series on mortality and (b) comparing predictions based on time-series modeling with the real number of deaths for the year following the implementation of the tax increase; and two indirect methodologies: (c) combining a regression-based estimate for the impact of taxation on alcohol consumption with attributable-fraction methodology and (d) using price elasticities from meta-analyses to estimate the impact on alcohol consumption before applying attributable-fraction methodology. RESULTS AND
conclusionsWhile all methodologies estimated reductions in all-cause mortality, especially for men, there was substantial variability in the level of mortality reductions predicted. The indirect methodologies had lower predictions as the meta-analyses on elasticities and risk relations seem to underestimate the true values for Lithuania. Directly estimated effects of taxation based on the actual mortalities seem to best represent the true reductions in alcohol-attributable mortality. A significant increase in alcohol excise taxation had a marked impact on all-cause mortality in Lithuania.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.