ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2022
Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Attributed causes of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in a south Indian city.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Modelling the first wave of COVID-19 in India.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Exploring the impact of under-reported cases on the COVID-19 spatiotemporal distributions using healthcare workers infection data.Cities (London, England) · 2022Article
- Plausibility of a third wave of COVID-19 in India: A mathematical modelling based analysis.The Indian journal of medical researchArticle
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7 authors.
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Abstract
India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
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