ArticleAnnals of botany2022
Stepping up to the thermogradient plate: a data framework for predicting seed germination under climate change.
Article in Annals of botany, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- Silvicultural Practices for Diversity Conservation and Invasive Species Suppression in Forest Ecosystems of the Bundala National Park, Sri Lanka.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Plant Seeds and Floristic Preservation in the Anthropocene.Annals of botany · 2022Article
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8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsSeed germination is strongly influenced by environmental temperatures. With global temperatures predicted to rise, the timing of germination for thousands of plant species could change, leading to potential decreases in fitness and ecosystem-wide impacts. The thermogradient plate (TGP) is a powerful but underutilized research tool that tests germination under a broad range of constant and alternating temperatures, giving researchers the ability to predict germination characteristics using current and future climates. Previously, limitations surrounding experimental design and data analysis methods have discouraged its use in seed biology research.
methodsHere, we have developed a freely available R script that uses TGP data to analyse seed germination responses to temperature. We illustrate this analysis framework using three example species: Wollemia nobilis, Callitris baileyi and Alectryon subdentatus. The script generates >40 germination indices including germination rates and final germination across each cell of the TGP. These indices are then used to populate generalized additive models and predict germination under current and future monthly maximum and minimum temperatures anywhere on the globe. KEY
resultsIn our study species, modelled data were highly correlated with observed data, allowing confident predictions of monthly germination patterns for current and future climates. Wollemia nobilis germinated across a broad range of temperatures and was relatively unaffected by predicted future temperatures. In contrast, C. baileyi and A. subdentatus showed strong seasonal temperature responses, and the timing for peak germination was predicted to shift seasonally under future temperatures.
conclusionsOur experimental workflow is a leap forward in the analysis of TGP experiments, increasing its many potential benefits, thereby improving research predictions and providing substantial information to inform management and conservation of plant species globally.
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