Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35202783›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2022

Stringency of containment and closures on the growth of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada prior to accelerated vaccine roll-out.

David M Vickers, Stefan Baral, Sharmistha Mishra, Jeffrey C Kwong, Maria Sundaram, Alan Katz, Andrew Calzavara, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux, David L Buckeridge, Tyler Williamson

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
3.1field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.

David M VickersCentre for Health Informatics and Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Stefan BaralDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, United States.
Sharmistha MishraMAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael's Hospital, Unity Health Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Jeffrey C KwongICES, Toronto, ON, Canada; Public Health Ontario, ON, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, ON, Canada.
Maria SundaramICES, Toronto, ON, Canada; Centre for Clinical Epidemiology and Population Health, Marshfield Clinic Research Institute, Marshfield, WI, USA.
Alan KatzDepartments of Community Health Sciences and Family Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Andrew CalzavaraICES, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Mathieu Maheu-GirouxDepartment of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.
David L BuckeridgeDepartment of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Tyler WilliamsonCentre for Health Informatics and Department of Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
McGill University · CAUniversity of Calgary · CAJohns Hopkins University · USMarshfield Clinic · USSt. Michael's Hospital · CAUniversity of Manitoba · CAUniversity of Toronto · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMany studies have examined the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on SARS-CoV-2 transmission worldwide. However, less attention has been devoted to understanding the limits of NPIs across the course of the pandemic and along a continuum of their stringency. In this study, we explore the relationship between the growth of SARS-CoV-2 cases and an NPI stringency index across Canada before the accelerated vaccine roll-out.

methodsWe conducted an ecological time-series study of daily SARS-CoV-2 case growth in Canada from February 2020 to February 2021. Our outcome was a back-projected version of the daily growth ratio in a stringency period (i.e., a 10-point range of the stringency index) relative to the last day of the previous period. We examined the trends in case growth using a linear mixed-effects model accounting for stringency period, province, and mobility in public domains.

resultsCase growth declined rapidly by 20-60% and plateaued within the first month of the first wave, irrespective of the starting values of the stringency index. When stringency periods increased, changes in case growth were not immediate and were faster in the first wave than in the second. In the first wave, the largest decreasing trends from our mixed effects model occurred in both early and late stringency periods, depending on the province, at a geometric mean index value of 30⋅1 out of 100. When compared with the first wave, the stringency periods in the second wave possessed little association with case growth.

conclusionsThe minimal association in the first wave, and the lack thereof in the second, is compatible with the hypothesis that NPIs do not, per se, lead to a decline in case growth. Instead, the correlations we observed might be better explained by a combination of underlying behaviors of the populations in each province and the natural dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Although there exist alternative explanations for the equivocal relationship between NPIs and case growth, the onus of providing evidence shifts to demonstrating how NPIs can consistently have flat association, despite incrementally high stringency.

Indexed as

COVID-19VaccinesCanadaHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2VaccinesEpidemiologyNon-pharmaceutical InterventionsSARS-CoV-2Stringency Index

Identifiers

PMID35202783
PMCPMC8863413
OpenAlexW4225727324

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.