ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Seasonal COVID-19 surge related hospital volumes and case fatality rates.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Rethinking the evidence on COVID-19 in Africa.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2025Review
- Optimal Annual COVID-19 Vaccine Boosting Dates Following Previous Booster Vaccination or Breakthrough Infection.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- Association between social activities and risk of COVID-19 in a cohort of healthcare personnel.Antimicrobial stewardship & healthcare epidemiology : ASHE · 2025Article
- A Dynamic Prognostic Model for Identifying Vulnerable COVID-19 Patients at High Risk of Rapid Deterioration.Pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Admission Rates and Changes in Care Quality in US Hospitals.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- COVID-19 inpatient mortality in Brazil from 2020 to 2022: a cross-sectional overview study based on secondary data.International journal for equity in health · 2023Article
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Abstract
backgroundSeasonal and regional surges in COVID-19 have imposed substantial strain on healthcare systems. Whereas sharp inclines in hospital volume were accompanied by overt increases in case fatality rates during the very early phases of the pandemic, the relative impact during later phases of the pandemic are less clear. We sought to characterize how the 2020 winter surge in COVID-19 volumes impacted case fatality in an adequately-resourced health system.
methodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study of all adult diagnosed with COVID-19 in a large academic healthcare system between August 25, 2020 to May 8, 2021, using multivariable logistic regression to examine case fatality rates across 3 sequential time periods around the 2020 winter surge: pre-surge, surge, and post-surge. Subgroup analyses of patients admitted to the hospital and those receiving ICU-level care were also performed. Additionally, we used multivariable logistic regression to examine risk factors for mortality during the surge period.
resultsWe studied 7388 patients (aged 52.8 ± 19.6 years, 48% male) who received outpatient or inpatient care for COVID-19 during the study period. Patients treated during surge (N = 6372) compared to the pre-surge (N = 536) period had 2.64 greater odds (95% CI 1.46-5.27) of mortality after adjusting for sociodemographic and clinical factors. Adjusted mortality risk returned to pre-surge levels during the post-surge period. Notably, first-encounter patient-level measures of illness severity appeared higher during surge compared to non-surge periods.
conclusionsWe observed excess mortality risk during a recent winter COVID-19 surge that was not explained by conventional risk factors or easily measurable variables, although recovered rapidly in the setting of targeted facility resources. These findings point to how complex interrelations of population- and patient-level pandemic factors can profoundly augment health system strain and drive dynamic, if short-lived, changes in outcomes.
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