ArticleNature communications2022
Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 27 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis.EBioMedicine · 2023Pooled it
- Unrecognized Dengue Transmission in Socially Vulnerable Peri-Urban Neighborhoods of a Temperate Argentine City: Integrating Serology with Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Article
- Dengue hospitalizations in Brazil: Forecasting with climatic and physicians' digital search data under real-world reporting delays.PLOS digital health · 2026Article
- Optimizing spatiotemporal nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza: An adaptive reinforcement learning approach for regional heterogeneity.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- Spatiotemporal co-circulation of four dengue serotypes across Mexico, 2020-2025: A space-time scan analysis.PloS one · 2026Article
- Variations in annual dengue intensities are explained by temperature anomalies.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics in cities.Science advances · 2025Review
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- An explainable covariate compartmental model for predicting the spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Sri Lanka.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- The 2023 dengue fatality in Bangladesh: Spatial and demographic insights.IJID regions · 2025Article
- Unraveling varying spatiotemporal patterns of Dengue Fever and associated exposure-response relationships with environmental variables in three Southeast Asian countries before and during COVID-19.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- A nationwide joint spatial modelling of simultaneous epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Exploring Dengue Dynamics: A Multi-Scale Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Trends in Ibagué, Colombia.Viruses · 2024Article
- Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Upsurge of dengue outbreaks in several WHO regions: Public awareness, vector control activities, and international collaborations are key to prevent spread.Health science reports · 2024Review
- Integration of population-level data sources into an individual-level clinical prediction model for dengue virus test positivity.Science advances · 2024Article
- Spatial and temporal trends of dengue infections in Curaçao: A 21-year analysis.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. Using surveillance data at fine resolution following the emergence of the DENV4 dengue serotype in Rio de Janeiro, we document a pattern in the size of successive epidemics that is invariant to the scale of spatial aggregation. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of the local size of successive epidemic waves.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.