Association of cumulative early medical factors with autism and autistic symptoms in a population-based twin sample.

Although highly heritable, environment also contributes to the etiology of autism spectrum disorder (ASD), with several specific environmental factors previously suggested. A registry-linked population-based twin cohort of 15,701 pairs (586 individuals with an ASD diagnosis), was established within the Child and Adolescent Twin Study in Sweden. Participants were evaluated for autistic symptoms at age 9 using the Autism-Tics, ADHD and other Comorbidities parental interview. A series of binary cut-offs indicated whether participants scored over various ASD symptom percentiles. Three early medical factors previously associated with ASD, beyond familial confounding (low birth weight, congenital malformations and perinatal hypoxia), were summed up creating an individual cumulative exposure load. A series of unconditional logistic regressions between all individuals and conditional regressions within twin pairs were performed for each outcome and exposure level. Between all individuals increasing cumulative early exposure loads were associated with increasing risk of ASD diagnosis (OR 3.33 (95%CI 1.79-6.20) for three exposures) and autistic symptoms (ranging from OR 2.12 (1.57-2.86) for three exposures at the 55th symptom percentile cut-off to OR 3.39 (2.2-5.24) at the 95th). Within twin pairs, the association between three exposures and an ASD diagnosis remained similar, but not statistically significant (OR 2.39 (0.62-9.24)). Having a higher load of early cumulative exposure was consistently associated with autistic symptoms after adjusting for familial confounding and sex (OR 3.45 (1.66-7.15) to OR 7.36 (1.99-27.18)). This study gives support to the cumulative stress hypothesis of ASD, and the dimensional model regarding environmental exposures, after adjustment for familial confounding.