ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2022
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 149 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
149 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Heterogeneity in and correlation between host transmissibility and susceptibility can greatly impact epidemic dynamics.Journal of theoretical biology · 2025Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- High seroprevalence for SARS-CoV-2 infection in South America, but still not enough for herd immunity!International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Pooled it
- Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Pooled it
- Efficacy versus coverage: population-level impacts of vaccination schemes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Between-species contagion drives HPAI transmission and mass mortality in seabirds.The Journal of animal ecology · 2026Article
- Tracking Dynamics of Superspreading Through Contacts, Exposures, and Transmissions in Edge-Based Network Epidemics.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Infected host competence overshadows heterogeneity in susceptibility in shaping experimental epizootics.Ecology · 2026Article
- Prior pathogen exposure augments inter-individual heterogeneity in antibody levels and reinfection loads in a songbird-pathogen system.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Host Prior Exposure Augments Gene Expression Heterogeneity of Both Host and Pathogen During In Vivo Infection.Molecular ecology · 2026Article
- Host heterogeneity and unpredictability in parasite outbreaks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Uncertainty and inconsistency of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention effects with multiple competitive statistical models.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Host traits and environmental factors shape infection heterogeneity in wild rat-protozoa networks.ISME communications · 2026Article
- Infected host competence overshadows heterogeneity in susceptibility in shaping experimental epizootics.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Assessing the impact of misinformation during the spread of infectious diseases.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Host prior exposure augments heterogeneity in gene expression in both host and pathogen duringbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- The ghost of infections past: Accounting for heterogeneity in individual infection history improves accuracy in epidemic forecasting.PLoS biology · 2025Article
- Strength and weakness of disease-induced herd immunity in networks.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Reinfection with a Bacterial Pathogen Augments Heterogeneity in Host Disease Responses.Research square · 2025Article
- Article
89 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as "frailty variation". Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.