ArticleClinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases2022
Reconstruction of a large-scale outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Iceland informs vaccination strategies.
Article in Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Effectiveness of contact tracing in the control of infectious diseases: a systematic review.The Lancet. Public health · 2022Pooled it
- Generalizing an outbreak cluster detection method for two groups: an application to rabies.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Article
- Changing genomic epidemiology of COVID-19 in long-term care facilities during the 2020-2022 pandemic, Washington State.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Integrated genomic surveillance enables tracing of person-to-person SARS-CoV-2 transmission chains during community transmission and reveals extensive onward transmission of travel-imported infections, Germany, June to July 2021.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2022Article
- Longitudinal changes in inflammatory biomarkers among patients with COVID-19: A nationwide study in Iceland.Acta anaesthesiologica Scandinavica · 2022Article
- Decoupling between SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and population mobility associated with increasing immunity from vaccination and infection in South America.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Age-specific rate of severe and critical SARS-CoV-2 infections estimated with multi-country seroprevalence studies.BMC infectious diseases · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
43 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesThe spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioural. The effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions can be attributed largely to changes in human behaviour, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to directly compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons.
methodsThe transmission tree enables us to model the effect that a given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had one of three different vaccination strategies been implemented before that time. This allows us to compare the effectiveness of the strategies in terms of minimizing the number of cases, deaths, critical cases, and severe cases.
resultsWe found that people diagnosed outside of quarantine (Rˆ=1.31) were 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine (Rˆ=0.70) and that infectiousness decreased as a function of time spent in quarantine before diagnosis, with people diagnosed outside of quarantine being 144% more infectious than those diagnosed after ≥3 days in quarantine (Rˆ=0.54). People of working age, 16 to 66 years (Rˆ=1.08), were 46% more infectious than those outside of that age range (Rˆ=0.74). DISCUSSION: We found that vaccinating the population in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age, without significantly affecting the expected number of deaths, critical cases, or severe cases.
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