ArticleEpidemics2022
Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling.
Article in Epidemics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- On real-time calibrated prediction for complex model-based decision support in pandemics: Part 2.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Advances in Contact Tracing: A Bayesian Framework to Improve Network and Transmission Models.Journal of molecular evolution · 2026Review
- Efficient sequential Bayesian inference for state-space epidemic models using ensemble data assimilation.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Retrospective analysis of age-specific non-pharmaceutical interventions on wild-type SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.BMC public health · 2026Article
- A multi-method study evaluating the inference of compartmental model parameters from a generative agent-based model.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- On urban maladaptation in times of epidemics.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- TheCommunications physics · 2026Article
- Assessment of simulation-based inference methods for stochastic compartmental models in epidemiological research.PloS one · 2026Article
- iPAR: A framework for modelling and inferring information about disease spread when the populations at risk are unknown.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Asymmetric limits on timely interventions from noisy epidemic data.Communications physics · 2025Article
- The Constrained Disorder Principle Overcomes the Challenges of Methods for Assessing Uncertainty in Biological Systems.Journal of personalized medicine · 2024Review
- Revisiting immunity vs. exposure in schistosomiasis: A mathematical modeling study of delayed concomitant immunity.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Inference on a Multi-Patch Epidemic Model with Partial Mobility, Residency, and Demography: Case of the 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Human judgement forecasting of COVID-19 in the UK.Wellcome open research · 2023Article
- Tracking the national and regional COVID-19 epidemic status in the UK using weighted principal component analysis.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- The challenges of data in future pandemics.Epidemics · 2022Review
- Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model.Epidemics · 2022Article
- RAMPVIS: Answering the challenges of building visualisation capabilities for large-scale emergency responses.Epidemics · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
19 authors at 15 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.