Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35177167›Full record

ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2022

COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million and infection fatality ratio, Belgium, 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020.

Geert Molenberghs, Christel Faes, Johan Verbeeck, Patrick Deboosere, Steven Abrams, Lander Willem, Jan Aerts, Heidi Theeten, Brecht Devleesschauwer, Natalia Bustos Sierra and 7 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
32citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

32 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  11. Executive Summary to the Royal Society report "COVID-19: examining the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions".Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Geert MolenberghsData Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
Christel FaesData Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
Johan VerbeeckData Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
Patrick DeboosereInterface Demography (ID), Department of Sociology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
Steven AbramsData Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
Lander WillemCentre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Jan AertsData Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.
Heidi TheetenCentre for the Evaluation of Vaccination (CEV), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Brecht DevleesschauwerDepartment of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Natalia Bustos SierraDepartment of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Françoise RenardDepartment of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Sereina HerzogCentre for Health Economics Research and Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CHERMID), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Patrick LusyneStatistics Belgium, Brussels, Belgium.
Johan Van der HeydenDepartment of Epidemiology and public health, Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Herman Van OyenDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Pierre Van DammeCentre for the Evaluation of Vaccination (CEV), Vaccine & Infectious Disease Institute (VAXINFECTIO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
Niel HensData Science Institute, I-BioStat, Universiteit Hasselt, Hasselt, Belgium.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BackgroundCOVID-19 mortality, excess mortality, deaths per million population (DPM), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and case fatality ratio (CFR) are reported and compared for many countries globally. These measures may appear objective, however, they should be interpreted with caution.AimWe examined reported COVID-19-related mortality in Belgium from 9 March 2020 to 28 June 2020, placing it against the background of excess mortality and compared the DPM and IFR between countries and within subgroups.MethodsThe relation between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality was evaluated by comparing COVID-19 mortality and the difference between observed and weekly average predictions of all-cause mortality. DPM were evaluated using demographic data of the Belgian population. The number of infections was estimated by a stochastic compartmental model. The IFR was estimated using a delay distribution between infection and death.ResultsIn the study period, 9,621 COVID-19-related deaths were reported, which is close to the excess mortality estimated using weekly averages (8,985 deaths). This translates to 837 DPM and an IFR of 1.5% in the general population. Both DPM and IFR increase with age and are substantially larger in the nursing home population.DiscussionDuring the first pandemic wave, Belgium had no discrepancy between COVID-19-related mortality and excess mortality. In light of this close agreement, it is useful to consider the DPM and IFR, which are both age, sex, and nursing home population-dependent. Comparison of COVID-19 mortality between countries should rather be based on excess mortality than on COVID-19-related mortality.

Indexed as

COVID-19BelgiumHumansMortalityNursing HomesPandemicsSARS-CoV-2COVID-19 Deaths per MillionCOVID-19 MortalityExcess mortalityInfection Fatality Ratio

Identifiers

PMID35177167
PMCPMC8855510

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.