Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35177095›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2022

On multifactorial drivers for malaria rebound in Brazil: a spatio-temporal analysis.

Mario J C Ayala, Leonardo S Bastos, Daniel A M Villela

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
2.8field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Ecological change increases malaria risk in the Brazilian Amazon.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Mario J C AyalaFundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Programa de Computação Científica, Av. Brasil, 4365-Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, 21040-900, Brazil.
Leonardo S BastosFundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Programa de Computação Científica, Av. Brasil, 4365-Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, 21040-900, Brazil.
Daniel A M VillelaFundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz), Programa de Computação Científica, Av. Brasil, 4365-Manguinhos, Rio de Janeiro, 21040-900, Brazil. daniel.villela@fiocruz.br.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8371-2959
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz · BR

Funding

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 309569/2019-2Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico 424141/2018-3
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMalaria incidence in Brazil reversed its decreasing trend when cases from recent years, as recent as 2015, exhibited an increase in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the area with the highest transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. In fact, an increase of more than 20% in the years 2016 and 2017 revealed possible vulnerabilities in the national malaria-control programme.

methodsFactors potentially associated with this reversal, including migration, economic activities, and deforestation, were studied. Past incidences of malaria cases due to P. vivax and P. falciparum were analysed with a spatio-temporal Bayesian model using more than 5 million individual records of malaria cases from January of 2003 to December of 2018 in the Brazilian Amazon to establish the municipalities with unexpected increases in cases.

resultsPlasmodium vivax incidence surpassed the past trends in Amazonas (AM), Amapá (AP), Acre (AC), Pará (PA), Roraima (RR), and Rondônia (RO), implying a rebound of these states between 2015 and 2018. On the other hand, P. falciparum also surpassed the past trends in AM, AC, AP, and RR with less severity than P. vivax incidence. Outdoor activities, agricultural activities, accumulated deforestation, and travelling might explain the rebound in malaria cases in RR, AM, PA, and RO, mainly in P. vivax cases. These variables, however, did not explain the rebound of either P. vivax and P. falciparum cases in AC and AP states or P. falciparum cases in RR and RO states.

conclusionThe Amazon basin has experienced an unexpected increase in malaria cases, mainly in P. vivax cases, in some regions of the states of Amazonas, Acre, Pará, Amapá, Roraima, and Rondônia from 2015 to 2018 and agricultural activities, outdoor activities, travelling activities, and accumulated deforestation appear linked to this rebound of cases in particular regions with different impact. This shows the multifactorial effects and the heterogeneity of the Amazon basin, boosting the necessity of focusing the malaria control programme on particular social, economic, and environmental conditions.

Indexed as

MalariaMalaria, FalciparumMalaria, VivaxBayes TheoremBrazilHumansPlasmodium falciparumPlasmodium vivaxSpatio-Temporal AnalysisMalaria reboundPlasmodium falciparumPlasmodium vivaxSpatio-temporal Bayesian model

Identifiers

PMID35177095
PMCPMC8851784
OpenAlexW4220928455

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.