ArticleBMC public health2022
Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- Climate change, trending outcomes for the care of older people, and financial expenditure: a systematic review and narrative synthesis.BMC public health · 2026Pooled it
- Effect of the 2018 Japan floods and COVID-19 pandemic on cognitive decline among atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima, Japan: a retrospective cohort study.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2025Article
- Utilization of Japanese long-term care-related data including Kaigo-DB: An analysis of current trends and future directions.Global health & medicine · 2024Review
- Effects of 2018 Japan floods on healthcare costs and service utilization in Japan: a retrospective cohort study.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Discontinuation of long-term care among persons affected by the 2018 Japan Floods: a longitudinal study using the Long-term Care Insurance Comprehensive Database.BMC geriatrics · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundClimate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization.
methodsThe participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect.
resultsThe total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively.
conclusionsThe 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services.
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