ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2022
FREM predicts 10-year incident fracture risk independent of FRAX® probability: a registry-based cohort study.
Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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- Prediction of Osteoporotic Hip Fracture Outcome: Comparative Accuracy of 27 Immune-Inflammatory-Metabolic Markers and Related Conceptual Issues.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
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11 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
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Abstract
The Danish Fracture Risk Evaluation Model (FREM) was found to predict fracture risk independent of 10-year fracture probability derived with the FRAX® tool including bone mineral density from DXA.
introductionFREM was developed from Danish public health registers without DXA information to identify high imminent risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture (HF), while FRAX® estimates 10-year fracture probability from clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) from DXA. The FREM algorithm showed significant 1- and 2-year fracture risk stratification when applied to a clinical population from Manitoba, Canada. We examined whether FREM predicts 10-year fracture risk independent of 10-year FRAX probability computed with BMD.
methodsUsing the Manitoba BMD Program registry, we identified women and men aged ≥ 45 years undergoing baseline BMD assessment. We calculated FREM and FRAX scores, and identified incident fractures over 10 years. Hazard ratios (HRs) for incident fracture were estimated according to FREM quintile, adjusted for FRAX probability. We compared predicted with observed 10-year cumulative fracture probability estimated with competing mortality.
resultsThe study population comprised 74,446 women, mean age 65.2 years; 7945 men, mean age 67.5 years. There were 7957 and 646 incident MOF and 2554 and 294 incident HF in women and men, respectively. Higher FREM scores were associated with increased risk for MOF (highest vs middle quintile HRs 1.49 women, 2.06 men) and HF (highest vs middle quintile HRs 2.15 women, 2.20 men) even when adjusted for FRAX. Greater mortality with higher FREM scores attenuated its effect on 10-year fracture probability. In the highest FREM quintile, observed slightly exceeded predicted 10-year probability for MOF (ratios 1.05 in women, 1.49 in men) and HF (ratios 1.29 in women, 1.34 in men).
conclusionsHigher FREM scores identified women and men at increased fracture risk even when adjusted for FRAX probability that included BMD; hence, FREM provides additional predictive information to FRAX. FRAX slightly underestimated 10-year fracture probability in those falling within the highest FREM quintile.
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