ArticleInternational journal of health policy and management2022
The Projection of Iran's Healthcare Expenditures By 2030: Evidence of a Time-Series Analysis.
Article in International journal of health policy and management, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A global scoping review on the patterns of medical fraud and abuse: integrating data-driven detection, prevention, and legal responses.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Pooled it
- Cost effectiveness analysis of six non insulin agents for type 2 diabetes in Iran using a patient level simulation with UKPDS OM2.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Stakeholder-Driven Cost Management Approaches in Iranian Hospitals: A Qualitative Thematic Analysis.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2025Article
- Economic impact of government health expenditure: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the Iran.Journal of education and health promotion · 2024Article
- The impact of general and central obesity for all-cause hospitalization among Iranian adults: a 20 year follow-up-results from the TLGS cohort.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Challenges of Budgeting and Public Financial Management in Iran's Health System: A Qualitative Study.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2023Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe projection of levels and composition of financial resources for the healthcare expenditure (HCE) and relevant trends can provide a basis for future health financing reforms. This study aimed to project Iran's HCEs by the sources of funds until 2030.
methodsThe structural macro-econometric modeling in the EViews 9 software was employed to simulate and project Iran's HCE by the sources of funds (government health expenditure [GHCE], social security organization health expenditure [SOHCE], out-of-pocket [OOP] payments, and prepaid private health expenditure [PPHCE]). The behavioral equations were estimated by autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach.
resultsIf there is a 5%-increase in Iran's oil revenues, the mean growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is about 2% until 2030. By this scenario, the total HCE (THCE), GHCE, SOHCE, OOP, and PPHCE increases about 30.5%, 25.9%, 34.4%, 31.2%, and 33.9%, respectively. Therefore, the THCE as a percentage of the GDP will increase from 9.6% in 2016 to 10.7% in 2030. It is predicted that Iran's THCE will cover 22.2%, 23.3%, 40%, and 14.5% by the government, social security organization (SSO), households OOP, and other private sources, respectively, in 2030.
conclusionUntil 2030, Iran's health expenditures will grow faster than the GDP, government revenues, and non-health spending. Despite the increase in GHCE and total government expenditure, the share of the GHCE from THCE has a decreasing trend. OOP payments remain among the major sources of financing for Iran's HCE.
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