ArticleBMC public health2022
The predictive power of geographic health care utilization for unintentional fatal fall rates.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundFalls are the leading cause of fatal and nonfatal injuries among adults over 65 years old. The increase in fall mortality rates is likely multifactorial. With a lack of key drivers identified to explain rising rates of death from falls, accurate predictive modelling can be challenging, hindering evidence-based health resource and policy efforts. The objective of this work is to examine the predictive power of geographic utilization and longitudinal trends in mortality from unintentional falls amongst different demographic and geographic strata.
methodsThis is a nationwide, retrospective cohort study using the United States Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS) database. The exposure was death from an unintentional fall as determined by the CDC. Outcomes included aggregate and trend crude and age-adjusted death rates. Health care utilization, reimbursement, and cost metrics were also compared.
resultsOver 2001 to 2018, 465,486 total deaths due to unintentional falls were recorded with crude and age-adjusted rates of 8.42 and 7.76 per 100,000 population respectively. Comparing age-adjusted rates, males had a significantly higher age-adjusted death rate (9.89 vs. 6.17; p < 0.00001), but both male and female annual age-adjusted mortality rates are expected to rise (Male: + 0.25 rate/year, R
conclusionsMachine learning models have high accuracy in predicting geographic age-adjusted mortality rates from health care utilization data. In the United States from 2001 through 2018, adults aged 85+ years carried the highest death rate from unintentional falls and this rate is forecasted to accelerate.
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