ArticleBMC medical informatics and decision making2022
Stochastic Petri net model describing the relationship between reported maternal and congenital syphilis cases in Brazil.
Article in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Computational methods applied to syphilis: where are we, and where are we going?Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness and safety of algorithm for treating pregnant women with syphilis and history of immediate allergy to penicillin.The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. Global · 2025Article
- Predictive modeling of biomedical temporal data in healthcare applications: review and future directions.Frontiers in physiology · 2024Review
- Salus Platform: A Digital Health Solution Tool for Managing Syphilis Cases in Brazil-A Comparative Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Evaluation of massive education in prison health: a perspective of health care for the person deprived of freedom in Brazil.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes of pregnant mothers with syphilis based on a logistic regression model: a retrospective study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Text mining analysis to understand the impact of online news on public health response: case of syphilis epidemic in Brazil.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Similarity Analysis in Understanding Online News in Response to Public Health Crisis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Analysis of the Impact of Communication Campaigns under the Project "Syphilis No": A National Tool for Inducing and Promoting Health.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Clinical Protocols and Treatment Guidelines for the Management of Maternal and Congenital Syphilis in Brazil and Portugal: Analysis and Comparisons: A Narrative Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Review
- Correction to: Stochastic Petri net model describing the relationship between reported maternal and congenital syphilis cases in Brazil.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2022Article
- Massive health education through technological mediation: Analyses and impacts on the syphilis epidemic in Brazil.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The relevancy of massive health education in the Brazilian prison system: The course "health care for people deprived of freedom" and its impacts.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Virtual Learning Environment of the Brazilian Health System (AVASUS): Efficiency of Results, Impacts, and Contributions.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- Management Solutions for the Restructuring of Laboratories Associated to the Sentinel Services for Syphilis and Other STIs.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- The Text Mining Technique Applied to the Analysis of Health Interventions to Combat Congenital Syphilis in Brazil: The Case of the "Syphilis No!" Project.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Syphilis in pregnancy and congenital syphilis: women's experiences from the perspective of symbolic interactionism.Revista brasileira de enfermagem · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
12 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionSyphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. In 2016, it was declared an epidemic in Brazil due to its high morbidity and mortality rates, mainly in cases of maternal syphilis (MS) and congenital syphilis (CS) with unfavorable outcomes. This paper aimed to mathematically describe the relationship between MS and CS cases reported in Brazil over the interval from 2010 to 2020, considering the likelihood of diagnosis and effective and timely maternal treatment during prenatal care, thus supporting the decision-making and coordination of syphilis response efforts.
methodsThe model used in this paper was based on stochastic Petri net (SPN) theory. Three different regressions, including linear, polynomial, and logistic regression, were used to obtain the weights of an SPN model. To validate the model, we ran 100 independent simulations for each probability of an untreated MS case leading to CS case (PUMLC) and performed a statistical t-test to reinforce the results reported herein.
resultsAccording to our analysis, the model for predicting congenital syphilis cases consistently achieved an average accuracy of 93% or more for all tested probabilities of an untreated MS case leading to CS case.
conclusionsThe SPN approach proved to be suitable for explaining the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) dataset using the range of 75-95% for the probability of an untreated MS case leading to a CS case (PUMLC). In addition, the model's predictive power can help plan actions to fight against the disease.
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