ArticleISA transactions2022
Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: Insights from a comparative modeling study.
Article in ISA transactions, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 36 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
36 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.Medicine · 2021Pooled it
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- A modeling study on the critical sensitivity of epidemic peaks and final size to marginal changes in non-pharmaceutical intervention efficacy.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of 'Disease X'.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- Understanding carbon resilience under public health emergencies: a synthetic difference-in-differences approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Managing spatio-temporal heterogeneity of susceptibles by embedding it into an homogeneous model: A mechanistic and deep learning study.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- A data-driven analysis on the mediation effect of compartment models between control measures and COVID-19 epidemics.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- How does COVID-19-related social media usage influence disordered eating? A daily diary study among Chinese adults during lockdown.Journal of eating disorders · 2023Article
- Combining the dynamic model and deep neural networks to identify the intensity of interventions during COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Lessons drawn from Shanghai for controlling highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants: insights from a modelling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Modelling the pulse population-wide nucleic acid screening in mitigating and stopping COVID-19 outbreaks in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Adaptive behaviors and vaccination on curbing COVID-19 transmission: Modeling simulations in eight countries.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Transmission trends of the global COVID-19 pandemic with combined effects of adaptive behaviours and vaccination.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- The resurgence risk of COVID-19 in China in the presence of immunity waning and ADE: A mathematical modelling study.Vaccine · 2022Article
- Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: Insights from a comparative modeling study.ISA transactions · 2022Article
- Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia (North Africa) through Several Successive Waves of COVID-19.Viruses · 2022Article
- Transfer learning with fine-tuned deep CNN ResNet50 model for classifying COVID-19 from chest X-ray images.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2022Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
We conducted a comparative study of the COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea, by formulating two disease transmission dynamics models which incorporate epidemic characteristics and setting-specific interventions, and fitting the models to multi-source data to identify initial and effective reproduction numbers and evaluate effectiveness of interventions. We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)), respectively, given a serial interval with mean of 5 days with standard deviation of 3 days. We found that the effective reproduction number for the Guangdong province and mainland China has fallen below the threshold 1 since February 8th and 18th respectively, while the effective reproduction number for South Korea remains high until March 2nd Moreover our model-based analysis shows that the COVID-19 epidemics in South Korean is almost under control with the cumulative confirmed cases tending to be stable as of April 14th. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that a coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and especially its provinces outside its epicenter. In comparison, we find that the extremely high detection rate is the key factor determining the success in controlling the COVID-19 epidemics in South Korea. The experience of outbreak control in mainland China and South Korea should be a guiding reference for the rest of the world.
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