ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Establish the Influenza Epidemic Thresholds and Intensity Levels for Age-Specific Groups in Hubei Province, China.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Applying the Moving Epidemic Method to Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance to identify the Start of Influenza Seasons in New South Wales, Australia.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2026Article
- Global region-specific influenza early warning by establishing an epidemic intensity threshold system: a modeling study.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Wastewater-based surveillance and early warning-forecasting framework for norovirus: a two-year longitudinal study in Shenzhen, China.Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- Application of the moving epidemic method for influenza surveillance in Kunming.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Viral-associated septic shock in pediatric pneumonia: a retrospective analysis of pathogen-specific risks and comparative clinical features with bacterial sepsis.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2025Article
- Incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children under 5 years in Suzhou, China: a hospital-based cohort study.BMJ open · 2024Observational
- Epidemiological change of influenza virus in hospitalized children with acute respiratory tract infection during 2014-2022 in Hubei Province, China.Virology journal · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSchool-aged children were reported to act as the main transmitter during influenza epidemic seasons. It is vital to set up an early detection method to help with the vaccination program in such a high-risk population. However, most relative studies only focused on the general population. Our study aims to describe the influenza epidemiology characteristics in Hubei Province and to introduce the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for age-specific groups.
methodsWe divided the whole population into pre-school, school-aged and adult groups. The virology data from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018 were applied to the moving epidemic method to establish the epidemic thresholds for the general population and age-specific groups for the detection of influenza in 2018/2019. The performances of the model were compared by the cross-validation process.
resultsThe epidemic threshold for school-aged children in the 2018/2019 season was 15.42%. The epidemic thresholds for influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B were determined as 5.68%, 6.12% and 10.48%, respectively. The median start weeks of the school-aged children were similar to the general population. The cross-validation process showed that the sensitivity of the model established with school-aged children was higher than those established with the other age groups in total influenza, H1N1 and influenza B, while it was only lower than the general population group in H3N2.
conclusionsThis study proved the feasibility of applying the moving epidemic method in Hubei Province. Additional influenza surveillance and vaccination strategies should be well-organized for school-aged children to reduce the disease burden of influenza in China.
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