Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35157959›Full record

ArticleJournal of hepatology2022

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication.

Peter P Mueller, Qiushi Chen, Turgay Ayer, Gizem S Nemutlu, Ali Hajjar, Emily D Bethea, Mary Linton B Peters, Brian P Lee, Naveed Z Janjua, Fasiha Kanwal and 1 more

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of hepatology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed
4.4field-weighted citation impact, top 4% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 34 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Observational
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  15. Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2024
    Article
  16. Review
  17. Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prevention in the Era of Hepatitis C Elimination.International journal of molecular sciences · 2023
    Review
  18. Delivery of biannual ultrasound surveillance for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C in the UK.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2023
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 7 institutions in 2 countries.

Peter P MuellerInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Qiushi ChenInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Harold and Inge Marcus Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Turgay AyerH. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Gizem S NemutluInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Ali HajjarInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Emily D BetheaInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Liver Center and Gastrointestinal Division, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
Mary Linton B PetersInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Medical Oncology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA.
Brian P LeeDivision of Gastrointestinal and Liver Diseases, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Naveed Z JanjuaBritish Columbia Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC, Canada; School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Fasiha KanwalDepartment of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; Houston Veterans Affairs Health Services Research and Development Center of Excellence, Michael E. DeBakey Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA.
Jagpreet ChhatwalInstitute for Technology Assessment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; Liver Center and Gastrointestinal Division, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA. Electronic address: jagchhatwal@mgh.harvard.edu.
Harvard University · USBeth Israel Deaconess Medical Center · USGeorgia Institute of Technology · USMichael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center · USPennsylvania State University · USUniversity of British Columbia · CAUniversity of Southern California · US

Funding

Tissue Analysis & Molecular Imaging CoreP30DK056338 · NIDDK · BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE · PI Geoffrey A Preidis · 2001 to 2026
$28.3M
Risk Stratification for and Early Detection of Liver CancerU01CA230997 · NCI · BAYLOR COLLEGE OF MEDICINE · PI Jagpreet Chhatwal, Hashem B El-Serag · 2018 to 2026
$6.4M
Cost Effectiveness of Germline Genetic Testing in Pancreatic CancerK08CA248473 · NCI · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI PETERS, MARY LINTON B · 2020 to 2024
$1.3M
NCI NIH HHS K08 CA248473NCI NIH HHS U01 CA230997NIDDK NIH HHS P30 DK056338
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND &

aimsSuccessful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance.

methodsWe developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance.

resultsIn virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis.

conclusionBiannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis. LAY SUMMARY: Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

Indexed as

Carcinoma, HepatocellularHepatitis CHepatitis C, ChronicLiver NeoplasmsAgedAntiviral AgentsCost-Benefit AnalysisHepacivirusHumansLiver CirrhosisMiddle AgedAntiviral Agentshealth economicsLiver cancerscreeningsimulation modeling

Identifiers

PMID35157959
PMCPMC9618359
OpenAlexW4210984645

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.