Evolution of landscape pattern and the association with ecosystem services in the Ili-Balkhash Basin.

The Ili-Balkhash Basin in Central Asia is an arid endorheic basin shared by China and Kazakhstan. Population growth, socio-economic development, ecological conservation measures, and climate change have spurred land use and land cover changes and ecosystem services variations. This study used the long-term dataset from 1992 to 2018 to detect the landscape pattern evolution and its association with ecosystem services. The landscape pattern was quantified using landscape metrics, and the GeoDetector model quantified the driving factors of landscape pattern evolution. The ecosystem service value was assessed using the benefit transfer method. The time series trend was identified by the linear regression analysis combined with the Mann-Kendall algorithm, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to confirm the correlation. The temporal dynamics of the landscape pattern indicated the significant conversion of bare land to grassland. Cropland and urban land expanded significantly at the expense of forestland, grassland, and bare land. Various landscape elements tended to be more uniformly distributed across the basin with more regular shape and higher aggregation. The ecosystem service value increased significantly, and its correlation with the landscape pattern varied according to land use and land cover (LULC) types. The weakened shape complexity, the strengthened aggregation degree, and the more uniform distribution of different LULC types helped elevate total ecosystem service value. The results advanced the understanding of landscape pattern evolution and provided the scientific reference for land management regarding ecosystem services. Given the watershed ecosystem's integrity, transboundary cooperation between China and Kazakhstan was suggested to reinforce watershed sustainability through integrated watershed land resource planning and the joint adaptive strategies to climate change.