ArticleLe infezioni in medicina2021
Association between RT-PCR Ct values and COVID-19 new daily cases: a multicenter cross-sectional study.
Article in Le infezioni in medicina, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cycle threshold values and SARS-CoV-2 variant associations with breakthrough infections: a retrospective study in Accra, Ghana.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Article
- Kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in Hospitalized Patients.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Liver injury in COVID-19: an insight into pathobiology and roles of risk factors.Virology journal · 2024Review
- SARS-CoV-2 variant survey: Comparison of RT-PCR screening with TGS and variant distribution across two divisions of Bangladesh.PloS one · 2024Article
- Cycle Threshold Values as Indication of Increasing SARS-CoV-2 New Variants, England, 2020-2022.Emerging infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Epidemiology of COVID-19 and the Utility of Cycle Threshold (Ct) Values in Predicting the Severity of Disease.Cureus · 2023Article
- Systematic Review on the Correlation Between SARS-CoV-2 Real-Time PCR Cycle Threshold Values and Epidemiological Trends.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2023Review
- A follow up study of cycle threshold values of SARS-CoV-2 in Hunan Province, China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Elucidation of correlation between SARS-CoV-2 RdRp and N gene cycle threshold (Ct) by RT-PCR with age and gender.Clinica chimica acta; international journal of clinical chemistry · 2022Article
- Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Droplet and Airborne Transmission Heterogeneity.Journal of clinical medicine · 2022Article
- Can the nucleic acid Ct value of discharged patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant be 35?--A retrospective study on fluctuation of nucleic acid Ct values in SNIEC mobile cabin hospital.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2022Article
- The Impact of a New STEMI Hotline on Cardiovascular Outcomes in STEMI Patients Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A National Cohort Study.Journal of the Saudi Heart Association · 2022Article
- The role of children and adolescents in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus within family clusters: A large population study from Oman.Journal of infection and public health · 2021Article
- Viral Dynamics and Real-Time RT-PCR Ct Values Correlation with Disease Severity in COVID-19.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- COVID-19: breaking down a global health crisis.Annals of clinical microbiology and antimicrobials · 2021Review
- Active environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Midwestern United States meatpacking plants.PloS one · 2021Article
- Is Atrial Fibrillation a Risk Factor for Worse Outcomes in Severe COVID-19 Patients: A Single Center Retrospective Cohort.Journal of the Saudi Heart Association · 2021Article
- Review of Current COVID-19 Diagnostics and Opportunities for Further Development.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Review
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Proactive prediction of the epidemiologic dynamics of viral diseases and outbreaks of the type of COVID-19 has remained a difficult pursuit for scientists, public health researchers, and policymakers. It is unclear whether RT-PCR Cycle Threshold (Ct) values of COVID-19 - or any other virus - as indicator of viral load, could represent a possible predictor for underlying epidemiologic changes on a population level. The study objective is thus to investigate whether population-wide changes in SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR Ct values over time are associated with the daily fraction of positive COVID-19 tests. In addition, this study analyses the factors that could influence RT-PCR Ct values. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted on 63,879 patients from May 4, 2020 to September 30, 2020, in all COVID-19 facilities in the Kingdom of Bahrain. Data collected included number of tests and newly diagnosed cases, as well as Ct values, age, sex nationality, and symptomatic status. Ct values were found to be negatively and very weakly correlated with the fraction of daily positive tests in the population r = -0.06 (CI 95%: -0.06; -0.05; p=0.001). The R-squared for the regression model (adjusting for age and number of daily tests) showed an accuracy of 45.3%. Ct Values showed an association with nationality (p=0.012). After the stratification, the association between Ct values and the fraction of daily positive cases was only maintained for the female sex and Bahraini-nationality. Symptomatic presentation was significantly associated with lower Ct values (higher viral loads). Ct values do not show any correlation with age (p=0.333) or sex (p=0.522). We report one of the first and largest studies to investigate the epidemiologic associations of Ct values with COVID-19. Although changes in Ct values showed a moderate association with daily cases, our results indicate that it may not be as predictive within a simple model. More population studies and models from global cohorts are necessary.
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