ArticleBMC nephrology2022
Nomogram to predict rapid kidney function decline in population at risk of cardiovascular disease.
Article in BMC nephrology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed, 2 citations in OpenAlex.
- Development and External Validation of a Nomogram for Individualized Risk Prediction of Hyperprolactinemia in Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Multicenter Study.International journal of general medicine · 2026Article
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17 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTo develop a reliable model to predict rapid kidney function decline (RKFD) among population at risk of cardiovascular disease.
methodsIn this retrospective study, key monitoring residents including the elderly, and patients with hypertension or diabetes of China National Basic Public Health Service who underwent community annual physical examinations from January 2015 to December 2020 were included. Healthy records were extracted from regional chronic disease management platform. RKFD was defined as the reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 40% during follow-up period. The entire cohort were randomly assigned to a development cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. Cox regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors. A nomogram was established based on the development cohort. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots were calculated. Decision curve analysis was applied to evaluate the clinical utility.
resultsA total of 8455 subjects were included. During the median follow-up period of 3.72 years, the incidence of RKFD was 11.96% (n = 1011), 11.98% (n = 676) and 11.92% (n = 335) in the entire cohort, development cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes were identified as predictors for RKFD. Good discriminating performance was observed in both the development (C-index, 0.73) and the validation (C-index, 0.71) cohorts, and the AUCs for predicting 5-years RKFD was 0.763 and 0.740 in the development and the validation cohort, respectively. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram.
conclusionsOur nomogram based on five readily accessible variables (age, eGFR, hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes) is a useful tool to identify high risk patients for RKFD among population at risk of cardiovascular disease in primary care. Whereas, further external validations are needed before clinical generalization.
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