Reopening strategies, mobility and COVID-19 infections in Europe: panel data analysis.

objectivesCharacterise the reopening policies of European countries after the first wave of infections and evaluate how these policies affected economic activity and subsequent infections. STUDY

designUsing publicly available data, we construct a database of reopening policy announcements by country authorities and develop measures related to the speed and timing of reopening. Using panel data regressions, we then assess how a country's reopening action subsequently affected its mobility and COVID-19 infections. Samples of 22 European countries used in the study comprise: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine and the UK. MAIN OUTCOMES: Mobility index as well as COVID-19 case and death counts.

resultsReopening policies are associated with a 1.5 percentage point increase in mobility and a 4% increase in subsequent infections after 2 weeks. However, some reopening strategies are associated with lower infection risk. In particular, early and fast reopeners saw 5%-10% increases in infections relative to those that opened later and adopted a gradual approach. The sequencing of sectoral reopenings matters, with infection amplification effects larger for some sectors (like retail and events) than others (like schools).

conclusionsFindings suggest some merit of gradual and late reopening strategies with a careful sequencing of sectoral openings based on their infection amplification risks.