ArticleBMC medicine2022
Observed and predicted premature mortality in Australia due to non-communicable diseases: a population-based study examining progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal.
Article in BMC medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 15 citations in OpenAlex.
- The global estimate of premature cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of age-standardized mortality rate.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Benchmarking progress in cause-specific cancers in China: a nationwide analysis of premature mortality from 1990 to 2023.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Fifteen-Year Trends in Behavioral Risk Factors and Metabolic Health Conditions for Non-Communicable Diseases: Persistent Race and Gender Inequalities in Brazil.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2026Article
- Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.Frontiers of medicine · 2025Article
- High temperature and cardiovascular disease in Australia under different climatic, demographic, and adaptive scenarios.European heart journal · 2025Article
- Client preferences in noncommunicable diseases management in Australia: A scoping review.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Review
- Trends and projections of cause-specific premature mortality in Australia to 2044: a statistical modelling study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Projection of high temperature-related burden of kidney disease in Australia under different climate change, population and adaptation scenarios: population-based study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- Observational
- Projecting the Health and Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease Among People with Type 2 Diabetes, 2022-2031.PharmacoEconomics · 2023Article
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6 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundThe World Health Organization's (WHO) 25X25 goal aims for a 25% relative reduction in premature death due to four non-communicable diseases (NCD4)-cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes-by 2025 compared to 2010. This study aimed to quantify the premature mortality in the Australian population due to NCD4, quantify the variation in mortality rates by age and sex, predict the premature mortality due to NCD4 in 2025 and evaluate the progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal.
methodsA population-based study using cause-specific mortality data of all deaths which occurred in Australia from 2010 to 2016 and registered up to 2017, for adults aged 30-69 years, was conducted. Age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) and probability of death for NCD4 were calculated for each year. ASMRs in 2016 were calculated for men and women. Deaths and the probability of death in 2025 were predicted using Poisson regression based on data from 2006 to 2016. To assess the progress against the WHO 25X25 goal, the relative reduction in the probability of death from NCD4 conditions in 2025 compared to 2010 was calculated.
resultsASMRs for NCD4 decreased from 2010 to 2016, except for diabetes which increased on average by 2.5% per year. Across sociodemographic factors, ASMRs were highest in males and increased with age. The projected probability of premature death in 2025 was 7.36%, equivalent to a relative reduction of 25.16% compared to 2010 levels.
conclusionsPremature mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory diseases and diabetes declined in Australia from 2010 to 2016. This trend is consistent across age groups and by sex, and higher mortality rates were observed in males and at older ages. Nationally, if the current trends continue, we estimate that Australia will achieve a 25.16% relative reduction in premature deaths due to NCD4 in 2025 compared to 2010, signifying substantial progress towards the WHO 25X25 goal. Concerted efforts will need to continue to meet the 25X25 goal, especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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