Projection of global burden and risk factors for aortic aneurysm - timely warning for greater emphasis on managing blood pressure.

rationaleAortic aneurysm (AA) is a serious condition that largely increases the risk of aortic dissection and sudden death. Exploring the global burden of disease and changes in risk factors for AA is essential for public health policy development.

objectiveTo project the death burden from AA and its attributable risk factors in the following decade based on the epidemiological data over the past 30 years. METHODS AND

resultsWe analysed the death burden of AA and trends of four risk factors from 1990-2019 using the updated 2019 Global Burden of Disease study database by Joinpoint regression analysis. Furthermore, we project the AA-related death burden for the next decade using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. This study discovered that the global burden of death attributable to AA began to increase after decreasing for two decades. This upward trend will continue in the subsequent decade (average annual percent change: 0.318%, 95% CI: 0.288 to 0.348). Meanwhile, the disease burdens in all economic regions except high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions will continuously increase in the next decade, with the fastest acceleration in the low-middle SDI region (average annual percent change: 1.183%, 95% CI: 1.166 to 1.200). Notably, high systolic blood pressure will surpass the contribution of smoking to become the most important risk factor for mortality due to AA.

conclusionThis study discovered a rebounding trend in the aortic aneurysm-related death burden globally. High systolic blood pressure will be the top risk factor attributed to death from AA. Therefore, it should be considered as the first-degree risk factor in the guidance of AA management and criteria for population-based screening programs.Key messagesThe death burden of aortic aneurysms is beginning to rebound globally, and the trend will continue for the next decade.High systolic blood pressure will replace smoking as the most important risk factor associated with aortic aneurysm death.