ArticlePloS one2022
A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- BayesianFitForecast: a user-friendly R toolbox for parameter estimation and forecasting with ordinary differential equations.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Article
- A human behavior-based model for respiratory infectious diseases prediction.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- A tight fit of the SIR dynamic epidemic model to daily cases of COVID-19 reported during the 2021-2022 Omicron surge in New York City: A novel approach.Statistical methods in medical research · 2024Article
- The coming Omicron waves and factors affecting its spread after China reopening borders.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023Article
- Inference on a Multi-Patch Epidemic Model with Partial Mobility, Residency, and Demography: Case of the 2020 COVID-19 Outbreak in Hermosillo, Mexico.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Direct numerical solutions of the SIR and SEIR models via the Dirichlet series approach.PloS one · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.
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