ArticleJournal of global health2021
The co-circulating transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Eta variants in Nigeria: A retrospective modeling study of COVID-19.
Article in Journal of global health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in West Africa: Insights into genomic surveillance in resource-constrained settings.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infections in The Gambia: an analysis of routinely collected surveillance data between March, 2020, and January, 2022.The Lancet. Global health · 2023Article
- The non-pharmaceutical interventions may affect the advantage in transmission of mutated variants during epidemics: A conceptual model for COVID-19.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- Multiple introduced lineages and the single native lineage co-driving the four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in West Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to public health globally, and the emerging mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes has become one of the major challenges of disease control. In the second epidemic wave in Nigeria, the roles of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (ie, B.1.1.7) and Eta (ie, B.1.525) variants in contributing to the epidemiological outcomes were of public health concerns for investigation.
methodsWe developed a mathematical model to capture the transmission dynamics of different types of strains in Nigeria. By fitting to the national-wide COVID-19 surveillance data, the transmission advantages of SARS-CoV-2 variants were estimated by likelihood-based inference framework.
resultsThe reproduction numbers were estimated to decrease steadily from 1.5 to 0.8 in the second epidemic wave. In December 2020, when both Alpha and Eta variants were at low prevalent levels, their transmission advantages (against the wild type) were estimated at 1.51 (95% credible intervals (CrI) = 1.48, 1.54), and 1.56 (95% CrI = 1.54, 1.59), respectively. In January 2021, when the original variants almost vanished, we estimated a weak but significant transmission advantage of Eta against Alpha variants with 1.14 (95% CrI = 1.11, 1.16).
conclusionsOur findings suggested evidence of the transmission advantages for both Alpha and Eta variants, of which Eta appeared slightly more infectious than Alpha. We highlighted the critical importance of COVID-19 control measures in mitigating the outbreak size and relaxing the burdens to health care systems in Nigeria.
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