ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2022
Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Identifying COVID-19 peaks using early warning signals.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Early detection of disease outbreaks and non-outbreaks using incidence data: A framework using feature-based time series classification and machine learning.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Early warning signals do not predict a warming-induced experimental epidemic.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Application of early warning signs to physiological contexts: a comparison of multivariate indices in patients on long-term hemodialysis.Frontiers in network physiology · 2024Article
- Using digital traces to build prospective and real-time county-level early warning systems to anticipate COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.Science advances · 2023Article
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Performance of early warning signals for disease re-emergence: A case study on COVID-19 data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Overlapping timescales obscure early warning signals of the second COVID-19 wave.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves.Biology letters · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Early warning indicators based on critical slowing down have been suggested as a model-independent and low-cost tool to anticipate the (re)emergence of infectious diseases. We studied whether such indicators could reliably have anticipated the second COVID-19 wave in European countries. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we found that characteristic early warning indicators generally
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.