ArticleTransport policy2022
Measuring the impact of an exogenous factor: An exponential smoothing model of the response of shipping to COVID-19.
Article in Transport policy, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Forecasting China's shipping indices based on modal decomposition and optimized deep learning integrated model.PloS one · 2025Article
- Impact of COVID-19 epidemic on port operations: Evidence from Asian ports.Case studies on transport policy · 2023Article
- Port governance in the post COVID-19 pandemic era: Heterogeneous service and collusive incentive.Ocean & coastal management · 2023Article
- The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Japanese shipping industry: An event study approach.Transport policy · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal dynamic network for regional maritime vessel flow prediction amid COVID-19.Transport policy · 2022Article
- Hybrid approaches for container traffic forecasting in the context of anomalous events: The case of the Yangtze River Delta region in the COVID-19 pandemic.Transport policy · 2022Article
- A topology-based evaluation of resilience on urban road networks against epidemic spread: Implications for COVID-19 responses.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, various lockdown strategies restrained global economic growth bringing a significant decline in maritime transportation. However, the previous studies have not adequately recognized the specific impacts of COVID-19 on maritime transportation. In this study, a series of analyses of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) and of container throughputs with and without the impact of COVID-19 were carried out to assess changing trends in dry bulk and container transportation. The results show that global dry bulk transportation was largely affected by lockdown policies in the second month during COVID-19, and BDI presented a year-on-year decrease of approximately 35.5% from 2019 to 2020. The CCBFI showed an upward trend in the second month during COVID-19, one month ahead of the BDI. The container throughputs at Shanghai Port, the Ports of Hong Kong, the Ports of Singapore and the Ports of Los Angeles from 2019 to 2020 presented the largest year-on-year drops of approximately 19.6%, 7.1%, 10.6% and 30.9%, respectively. In addition, the authors developed exponential smoothing models of BDI, CCBFI, and container transportation, and calculated the percentage prediction error between the observed and predicted values to examine the impact of exogenous effects on the shipping industry due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The results are consistent with the conclusions obtained from the comparison of BDI, CCBFI, and container transportation during the same period in 2020 and 2019. Finally, on the basis of the findings, smart shipping and special support policies are proposed to reduce the negative impacts of COVID-19.
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