Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35121217›Full record

ArticleJournal of health economics2022

What drives innovation? Lessons from COVID-19 R&D.

Ruchir Agarwal, Patrick Gaule

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of health economics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  5. Trends in compassionate use of medicinal products: Israel 2020-2024.Israel journal of health policy research · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Ruchir AgarwalResearch Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th St NW, Washington, DC 20431, United States; School of Economics, University of Bristol, 12A Priory Rd, Bristol BS8 1TU, United Kingdom. Electronic address: RAgarwal@imf.org.
Patrick GauleResearch Department, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th St NW, Washington, DC 20431, United States; School of Economics, University of Bristol, 12A Priory Rd, Bristol BS8 1TU, United Kingdom. Electronic address: patrick.gaule@bristol.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This paper studies the global R&D effort to fight the deadliest diseases. We find: (1) the elasticity of R&D effort with respect to market size is about 1/2 in the cross-section of diseases; (2) given this elasticity, the R&D response to COVID-19 has been 4 to 26 times greater than that implied by its market size; (3) the aggregate short-term elasticity of science and innovation can be very large, as demonstrated by the aggregate flow of clinical trials increasing by 38% in 2020, with limited crowding out of trials for non-COVID diseases; and (4) public institutions and government-led incentives were a key driver of the COVID-19 R&D effort-with public research institutions accounting for 70 percent of all COVID-19 clinical trials globally. Overall, our work suggests that leveraging early-stage incentives, non-monetary incentives, and public institutions may be important for scaling up global innovation.

Indexed as

COVID-19Drug IndustryHumansMotivationCOVID-19InnovationMarket sizePharmaceutical industry

Identifiers

PMID35121217
PMCPMC8785430

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.