Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35119921›Full record

ArticleScience advances2022

The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics.

Aaron S Bernstein, Amy W Ando, Ted Loch-Temzelides, Mariana M Vale, Binbin V Li, Hongying Li, Jonah Busch, Colin A Chapman, Margaret Kinnaird, Katarzyna Nowak and 10 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 115 papers, 5 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
115citing papers in PubMed, 5 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

115 citing papers in PubMed, 5 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Article
  7. Review
  8. Wildlife Trade and Genetic Basis of Disease Susceptibility: A Review.International journal of immunogenetics · 2026
    Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
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  12. Review
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  14. Article
  15. Article
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  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Article

55 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Aaron S BernsteinBoston Children's Hospital and the Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, Boston, MA 02115, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1703-1041
Amy W AndoDepartment of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61801, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3279-8075
Ted Loch-TemzelidesDepartment of Economics and Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University, Houston, TX 77005, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8339-6722
Mariana M ValeEcology Department, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0003-0734-4925
Binbin V LiEnvironment Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Kunshan, Jiangsu Province 215317, China.ORCID 0000-0001-6188-7512
Hongying LiEcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5089-1134
Jonah BuschMoore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0918-4179
Colin A ChapmanWilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8827-8140
Margaret KinnairdPractice Leader, Wildlife, WWF International, The Mvuli, Mvuli Road, Westlands, Kenya.ORCID 0000-0002-5189-2817
Katarzyna NowakThe Safina Center, 80 North Country Road, Setauket, NY 11733, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4992-7910
Marcia C CastroHarvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02215, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4606-2795
Carlos Zambrana-TorrelioEcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5614-7496
Jorge A AhumadaMoore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0953-9101
Lingyun XiaoDepartment of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province 215123, China.ORCID 0000-0001-6167-2159
Patrick RoehrdanzMoore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4047-5011
Les KaufmanDepartment of Biology and Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6310-1613
Lee HannahMoore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5180-9588
Peter DaszakEcoHealth Alliance, 520 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2046-5695
Stuart L PimmNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-4206-2456
Andrew P DobsonDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9678-1694

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers have promoted plans that argue the best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, "detecting and containing emerging zoonotic threats." In other words, we should take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans have extensive contact with wildlife known to harbor vast numbers of viruses, many of which have not yet spilled into humans. We compute the annualized damages from emerging viral zoonoses. We explore three practical actions to minimize the impact of future pandemics: better surveillance of pathogen spillover and development of global databases of virus genomics and serology, better management of wildlife trade, and substantial reduction of deforestation. We find that these primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 1/20th the value of lives lost each year to emerging viral zoonoses and have substantial cobenefits.

Identifiers

PMID35119921
PMCPMC8816336

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.