Development and validation a radiomics nomogram for diagnosing occult brain metastases in patients with stage IV lung adenocarcinoma.

backgroundTo develop and validate a radiomics model using computed tomography (CT) images acquired from the first diagnosis to estimate the status of occult brain metastases (BM) in patients with stage IV lung adenocarcinoma (LADC).

methodsOne hundred and ninety-three patients who were first diagnosed with stage IV LADC were enrolled and divided into a training cohort (n=135) and a validation cohort (n=58). Then, 725 radiomic features were extracted from contoured primary tumor volumes of LADCs. Intra- and interobserver reliabilities were calculated, and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was applied for feature selection. Subsequently, a radiomics signature (Rad-Score) was built. To improve performance, a nomogram incorporating a radiomics signature and an independent clinical predictor was developed. Finally, the established signature and nomogram were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and precision-recall curves (PRC). Both empirical and α-binomial model-based ROCs and PRCs were plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) and average precision (AP) of ROCs and PRCs were calculated and compared.

resultsA radiomics signature and Rad-Score were constructed using eight radiomic features, and these had significant correlations with occult BM status. A nomogram was developed by incorporating a Rad-Score and the primary tumor location. The nomogram yielded an optimal AUC of 0.911 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.903-0.919] and an AP of 0.885 (95% CI: 0.876-0.894) in the training cohort, and an AUC of 0.873 (95% CI: 0.866-0.80) and an AP of 0.827 (95% CI: 0.820-0.834) in the validation cohort using α-binomial model-based method. The calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram showed high agreement between the actual occult BM probability and predicted by the nomogram (P=0.427).

conclusionsThe nomogram incorporating a radiomics signature and a clinical risk factor achieved optimal performance after holistic assessment using unbiased indexes for diagnosing occult BM of patients who were first diagnosed with stage IV LADC.