ArticleGlobal change biology2022
Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change.
Article in Global change biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change.Nature communications · 2024Pooled it
- Coral Genetic Structure in the Western Indian Ocean Mirrors Ocean Circulation and Thermal Stress History.Evolutionary applications · 2026Article
- Benthic baselines of the Groote Archipelago's key reefs in the wake of mass coral bleaching and Tropical Cyclone Megan.PloS one · 2026Article
- Vulnerability of tropical fish communities across depth in the central Indian Ocean.Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology · 2025Article
- Coral cover and species responses to heat exposure vary across contemporary Western Atlantic reefs.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Coral Bleaching: The Equatorial-Refugia Hypothesis.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Genetic Population Structure and Distribution of the Small Giant ClamEcology and evolution · 2025Article
- Impacts of the 2023 Marine Heatwave in the Florida Keys: Detection and Analysis of a Mass Coral Bleaching Event Using Spaceborne Remote Sensing Imagery.Environmental science & technology · 2025Article
- Machine learning reveals distinct gene expression signatures across tissue states in stony coral tissue loss disease.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Temporal Dynamics and Disturbance Responses in Coral-Dwelling Decapods Provide a Novel Perspective on Their Ecological Role in Coral Reef Systems.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Article
- Differential spatio-temporal responses of Red Sea coral reef benthic communities to a mass bleaching event.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Thermal tolerance traits of individual corals are widely distributed across the Great Barrier Reef.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Corals that survive repeated thermal stress show signs of selection and acclimatization.PloS one · 2024Article
- Open science resources from the Tara Pacific expedition across coral reef and surface ocean ecosystems.Scientific data · 2023Article
- The Evolution of Coral Reef under Changing Climate: A Scientometric Review.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Review
- Standardization ofPeerJ · 2023Review
- Coral reefs: The good and not so good news with future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change.Global change biology · 2022Article
- Present and future bright and dark spots for coral reefs through climate change.Global change biology · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Marine heatwaves can cause coral bleaching and reduce coral cover on reefs, yet few studies have identified "bright spots," where corals have recently shown a capacity to survive such pressures. We analyzed 7714 worldwide surveys from 1997 to 2018 along with 14 environmental and temperature metrics in a hierarchical Bayesian model to identify conditions that contribute to present-day coral cover. We also identified locations with significantly higher (i.e., "bright spots") and lower coral cover (i.e., "dark spots") than regionally expected. In addition, using 4-km downscaled data of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, we projected coral cover on reefs for the years 2050 and 2100. Coral cover on modern reefs was positively associated with historically high maximum sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and negatively associated with high contemporary SSTs, tropical-cyclone frequencies, and human-population densities. By 2100, under RCP8.5, we projected relative decreases in coral cover of >40% on most reefs globally but projected less decline on reefs in Indonesia, Malaysia, the central Philippines, New Caledonia, Fiji, and French Polynesia, which should be focal localities for multinational networks of protected areas.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.