ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed.
- Recommendations for the analysis of leading indicators in epidemic surveillance.PLOS digital health · 2026Review
- Evaluation of respiratory disease hospitalisation forecasts using synthetic outbreak data.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Local Influenza Forecasts Outperform State-Level Forecasts in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Understanding how mobility and spatial disparities shape COVID-19 transmission under rotational and localized lockdowns.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Basic Baseline model design choices can substantially influence performance in collaborative forecast hubs.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Estimated impact of 2022-2023 influenza vaccines on annual hospital burden in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Improving outbreak forecasts through model augmentation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Behavior-driven forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 spread in New York City.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Evaluating infectious disease forecasts with allocation scoring rules.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society) · 2024Article
- A GPT-based EHR modeling system for unsupervised novel disease detection.Journal of biomedical informatics · 2024Article
- Data-driven mechanistic framework with stratified immunity and effective transmissibility for COVID-19 scenario projections.Epidemics · 2024Article
- Responding to the Return of Influenza in the United States by Applying Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Surveillance, Analysis, and Modeling to Inform Understanding of Seasonal Influenza.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Review
- Infectious disease surveillance needs for the United States: lessons from Covid-19.Frontiers in public health · 2024Review
- The disutility of compartmental model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Article
- A framework for integrating wastewater-based epidemiology and public health.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Assessing the utility of COVID-19 case reports as a leading indicator for hospitalization forecasting in the United States.Epidemics · 2023Article
- A data-driven semi-parametric model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Enhancing the Predictive Power of Google Trends Data Through Network Analysis: Infodemiology Study of COVID-19.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
- Understanding the leading indicators of hospital admissions from COVID-19 across successive waves in the UK.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
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16 authors.
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Abstract
Forecasting the burden of COVID-19 has been impeded by limitations in data, with case reporting biased by testing practices, death counts lagging far behind infections, and hospital census reflecting time-varying patient access, admission criteria, and demographics. Here, we show that hospital admissions coupled with mobility data can reliably predict severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission rates and healthcare demand. Using a forecasting model that has guided mitigation policies in Austin, TX, we estimate that the local reproduction number had an initial 7-d average of 5.8 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.6 to 7.9) and reached a low of 0.65 (95% CrI: 0.52 to 0.77) after the summer 2020 surge. Estimated case detection rates ranged from 17.2% (95% CrI: 11.8 to 22.1%) at the outset to a high of 70% (95% CrI: 64 to 80%) in January 2021, and infection prevalence remained above 0.1% between April 2020 and March 1, 2021, peaking at 0.8% (0.7-0.9%) in early January 2021. As precautionary behaviors increased safety in public spaces, the relationship between mobility and transmission weakened. We estimate that mobility-associated transmission was 62% (95% CrI: 52 to 68%) lower in February 2021 compared to March 2020. In a retrospective comparison, the 95% CrIs of our 1, 2, and 3 wk ahead forecasts contained 93.6%, 89.9%, and 87.7% of reported data, respectively. Developed by a task force including scientists, public health officials, policy makers, and hospital executives, this model can reliably project COVID-19 healthcare needs in US cities.
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