Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35102274›Full record

ArticleNature plants2022

Old and ancient trees are life history lottery winners and vital evolutionary resources for long-term adaptive capacity.

Charles H Cannon, Gianluca Piovesan, Sergi Munné-Bosch

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature plants, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Ancient oaks reveal rewilding of Mediterranean forests after the Black Death.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  5. Article
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  15. Changes ofPeerJ · 2024
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Surveying the unknown forests.Nature plants · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Charles H CannonCenter for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, Lisle, IL, USA. ccannon@mortonarb.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1901-0420
Gianluca PiovesanDepartment of Ecological and Biological Sciences (DEB), Università Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3214-0839
Sergi Munné-BoschDepartment of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6523-6848

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Trees can live for many centuries with sustained fecundity and death is largely stochastic. We use a neutral stochastic model to examine tree demographic patterns that emerge over time, across a range of population sizes and empirically observed mortality rates. A small proportion of trees (~1% at 1.5% mortality) are life-history 'lottery winners', achieving ages >10-20× the median age. Maximum age increases with bigger populations and lower mortality rates. One-quarter of trees (~24%) achieve ages that are three to four times greater than the median age. Three age classes (mature, old and ancient) contribute unique evolutionary diversity across complex environmental cycles. Ancient trees are an emergent property of forests that requires many centuries to generate. They radically change variance in generation time and population fitness, bridging centennial environmental cycles. These life-history 'lottery' winners are vital to long-term forest adaptive capacity and provide invaluable data about environmental history and individual longevity. Old and ancient trees cannot be replaced through restoration or regeneration for many centuries. They must be protected to preserve their invaluable diversity.

Indexed as

ForestsTreesBiological Evolution

Identifiers

PMID35102274

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.