ArticleNonlinear dynamics2022
Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa: an endemic model of COVID-19.
Article in Nonlinear dynamics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- How Does Vaccine-Induced Immunity Compare to Infection-Acquired Immunity in the Dynamics of COVID-19?Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- A bifurcation analysis and model of Covid-19 transmission dynamics with post-vaccination infection impact.Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) · 2023Article
- Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Preface to the special issue "Complex dynamics of COVID-19: modeling, prediction and control (part II)".Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19.
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