Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35094868›Full record

ArticleVaccine2022

Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project.

John Paget, A Danielle Iuliano, Robert J Taylor, Lone Simonsen, Cecile Viboud, Peter Spreeuwenberg, Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Vaccine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 39 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
39citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
9.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

39 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 66 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
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  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Observational
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
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  14. Article
  15. Influenza vaccination in older people: a geriatrician's perspective.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2025
    Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Influenza-Related Deaths in the Czech Republic Over 21 Seasons.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025
    Article
  19. Individual associations of self-reported sleep duration, sleep quality, chronotype and social jet lag with infectious disease risk.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

John PagetNetherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, the Netherlands. Electronic address: j.paget@nivel.nl.
A Danielle IulianoCenters for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Robert J TaylorIndependent Consultant, Portland, USA.
Lone SimonsenRoskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark.
Cecile ViboudFogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Peter SpreeuwenbergNetherlands Institute for Health Services Research (Nivel), Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams
Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research · NLCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USNational Institutes of Health · USRoskilde University · DK

Funding

Intramural NIH HHS Z99 TW999999
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe European Centres for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimates that seasonal influenzacauses 4-50 million symptomatic infections in the EU/EEA each year and 15,000-70,000 European citizens die of causes associated with influenza. We used modelling methods to estimate influenza-associated mortality for the European Union by age group and country.

methodsWe compiled influenza-associated respiratory mortality estimates for 31 countries around the world (11 countries in the EU) during 2002-2011 (excluding the 2009 pandemic). From these we extrapolated the influenza mortality burden for all 193 countries of the world, including the 28 countries of the EU, using a multiple imputation approach. To study the effect of vaccination programs, we obtained data from the EU-funded VENICE project regarding the percentage of persons over 65 who were vaccinated in each country; the data ranged from 2% to 82% between the 21 countries which provided estimates for the 2006/07 reference season.

resultsWe estimated that an average of 27,600 (range 16,200-39,000) respiratory deaths were associated with seasonal influenza in the 28 EU countries per winter; 88% were among people 65 years and older, and the rates of mortality in this age group were roughly 35 times higher compared with those < 65 years. Estimates varied considerably across the EU; for example, rates in the elderly ranged from 21.6 (12.5-35.1) per 100,000 in Portugal to 36.5 (16.4-62.5) in Luxembourg, a difference of nearly 70%. We were unable to find a negative correlation between vaccination coverage rates and influenza-associated mortality estimates in the elderly.

conclusionOur EU estimate of influenza-associated respiratory mortality is broadly consistent with the ECDC estimate. More research is needed to explain the observed variation in mortality across the EU, and on possible bias that could explain the unexpected lack of mortality benefits associated with European elderly influenza vaccination programs.

Indexed as

Influenza, HumanAgedEuropeEuropean UnionHumansImmunization ProgramsSeasonsVaccinationEuropeInfluenzaMortalityRegionalRespiratory Mortality

Identifiers

PMID35094868
PMCPMC8923032
OpenAlexW4210771324

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.