Empirical estimation and analysis of total carbon emission quota based on carbon transfer-embedded import and export trade.

Based on the input-output table and considering the terms of import and export trade at the national level, this paper calculates China's annual direct carbon emissions and total carbon emissions from 2005 to 2015. On the one hand, the actual direct carbon emissions and actual complete carbon emissions at the national level are calculated by MRIO model; on the other hand, according to the 5-year emission reduction targets set in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan and the outline document of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, the emission reduction targets for each year are determined by equal distribution over the years. Hence, the annual carbon intensity emission reduction targets for 2006-2010 and 2011-2015 can be determined to be 4% and 3.4%, respectively, to calculate the target direct carbon emissions and target goal for complete carbon emissions. The smaller of the two is taken as the total quota. Taking 2015 as an example, the total direct carbon quota and complete carbon quota calculated are 87.87 million tons and 71.85 million tons, respectively, which is the total amount to be allocated for inter-provincial direct carbon quota and inter-provincial complete carbon quota. Findings of the study hold pivotal implications for policy development.