Business Cycle and Public Health: The Moderating Role of Health Education and Digital Economy.

The cyclicality of public health in the emerging market is underexplored in existing literature. In this study, we used a fixed effect model and provincial data to document how public health varies with the business cycle in China over the period of 2010-2019. The estimated results showed that the business cycle is negatively correlated with the mortality of infectious disease, a proxy variable of public health, thus indicating that public health exhibits a countercyclical pattern in China. Furthermore, we investigated the potential moderating role of public health education and digital economy development in the relationship between business cycle and public health. Our findings suggested that public health education and digital economy development can mitigate the damage of economic conditions on public health in China. Health education helps the public obtain more professional knowledge about diseases and then induces effective preventions. Compared with traditional economic growth, digital economy development can avoid environmental pollution which affects public health. Also, it ensures that state-of-the-art medical services are available for the public through e-health. In addition, digitalization assures that remote working is practicable and reduces close contact during epidemics such as COVID-19. The conclusions stand when subjected to several endogeneity and robustness checks. Therefore, the paper implies that these improvements in public health education and digitalization can help the government in promoting public health.