ArticleNature communications2022
The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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30 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 60 citations in OpenAlex.
- Meta-analysis finds large variation but no general patterns in the relationship between climate and parasitism in terrestrial animals.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Pooled it
- Beyond Temperature: Relative Humidity Systematically Shifts Juvenile Thermal Performance and Projected Population Growth in a Malaria Vector.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- Socioeconomic and household water management determinants of malaria and other vector-borne disease prevention in Urban Gujarat, India.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Predicting environmental suitability and future spread range ofInternational journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation : ITC journal · 2026Article
- Determinants of locally acquired malaria infections in Zanzibar: a cross-sectional study.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Determinants of malaria transmission in Indian districts in 2018: insights from ensemble models.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Ecological drivers of malaria vector habitat and transmission over 1 year of long-lasting insecticidal net intervention in Côte d'Ivoire.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal patterns and climate-induced macroeconomic burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Impact of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in hyper, high, moderate and low endemic States in India from 1995 to 2023.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- The origin, invasion history and resistance architecture ofbioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Impact of Global Climate-Change on Ecology ofIranian journal of public health · 2025Review
- Hybrid models combining trend and seasonality components with machine learning algorithms provide accurate forecasting of malaria incidence.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Whole genome Shotgun Sequence ofJournal of genomics · 2025Article
- Determinants of urban mosquito population density and community responses: A cross-sectional study.F1000Research · 2025Article
- Review of selected mosquito-borne diseases: arboviruses (dengue, chikungunya, Zika, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever) and parasitic diseases (malaria, lymphatic Filariasis).Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Toward optimal disease surveillance with graph-based active learning.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2024Review
- Descriptive, Hospital-Based, 10-Year Study of Malaria Transmission in Goa, a Southwest Indian State in the Malaria Elimination Phase.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Disentangling the seasonality effects of malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon basin.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of 'out-of-fit' cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts.
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