ArticleMethods (San Diego, Calif.)2022
Data-driven case fatality rate estimation for the primary lineage of SARS-CoV-2 in Poland.
Article in Methods (San Diego, Calif.), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Bayesian estimator of the real-time case fatality rate in emerging pandemic to inform public health policy-making.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Observational
- Article
- Predictive Model for National Minimal CFR during Spontaneous Initial Outbreak of Emerging Infectious Disease: Lessons from COVID-19 Pandemic in 214 Nations and Regions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using RT-qPCRs by Targeting Recurrent Mutation Sites: A Diagnostic Laboratory Experience from Multi-Center Regional Study, August 2020-December 2021, Poland.International journal of molecular sciences · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
After more than one and a half year since the COVID-19 pandemics outbreak the scientific world is constantly trying to understand its dynamics. In this paper of the case fatality rates (CFR) for COVID-19 we study the historic data regarding mortality in Poland during the first six months of pandemic, when no SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern were present among infected. To this end, we apply competing risk models to perform both uni- and multivariate analyses on specific subpopulations selected by different factors including the key indicators: age, sex, hospitalization. The study explores the case fatality rate to find out its decreasing trend in time. Furthermore, we describe the differences in mortality among hospitalized and other cases indicating a sudden increase of mortality among hospitalized cases at the end of the 2020 spring season. Exploratory and multivariate analysis revealed the real impact of each variable and besides the expected factors indicating increased mortality (age, comorbidities) we track more non-obvious indicators. Recent medical care as well as the identification of the source contact, independently of the comorbidities, significantly impact an individual mortality risk. As a result, the study provides a twofold insight into the COVID-19 mortality in Poland. On one hand we explore mortality in different groups with respect to different variables, on the other we indicate novel factors that may be crucial in reducing mortality. The later can be coped, e.g. by more efficient contact tracing and proper organization and management of the health care system to accompany those who need medical care independently of comorbidities or COVID-19 infection.
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