Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35079022›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

Regional excess mortality during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in five European countries.

Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, Michela Cameletti, Virgilio Gómez-Rubio, Inmaculada León Gómez, Monica Pirani, Gianluca Baio, Amparo Larrauri, Julien Riou, Matthias Egger, Paolo Vineis and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 67 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
67citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

67 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  8. Real-time monitoring of excess mortality under a new endemic regime.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025
    Article
  9. Excess Mortality Estimation.Annual review of statistics and its application · 2025
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7 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Garyfallos KonstantinoudisMRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. g.konstantinoudis@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-7493-9334
Michela CamelettiDepartment of Economics, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
Virgilio Gómez-RubioDepartamento de Matemáticas, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete, Spain.ORCID 0000-0002-4791-3072
Inmaculada León GómezNational Centre of Epidemiology (CNE), Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
Monica PiraniMRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6418-3278
Gianluca BaioDepartment of Statistical Sciences, University College London, London, UK.
Amparo LarrauriNational Centre of Epidemiology (CNE), Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain.
Julien RiouInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Matthias EggerInstitute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Paolo VineisMRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Marta BlangiardoMRC Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Funding

Improving statistical methods for small area estimates of public health indicators and demographic characteristicsR01HD092580 · NICHD · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI Lance A Waller · 2018 to 2026
$2.3M
Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (Foundation for the National Institutes of Health, Inc.) R01HD092580-01A1Medical Research Council MR/L01341X/1Medical Research Council MR/S019669/1Medical Research Council MR/T025352/1NICHD NIH HHS R01 HD092580
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess mortality from all causes in 2020 varied across and within European countries. Using data for 2015-2019, we applied Bayesian spatio-temporal models to quantify the expected weekly deaths at the regional level had the pandemic not occurred in England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. With around 30%, Madrid, Castile-La Mancha, Castile-Leon (Spain) and Lombardia (Italy) were the regions with the highest excess mortality. In England, Greece and Switzerland, the regions most affected were Outer London and the West Midlands (England), Eastern, Western and Central Macedonia (Greece), and Ticino (Switzerland), with 15-20% excess mortality in 2020. Our study highlights the importance of the large transportation hubs for establishing community transmission in the first stages of the pandemic. Here, we show that acting promptly to limit transmission around these hubs is essential to prevent spread to other regions and countries.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCause of DeathCOVID-19EnglandFemaleGeographyGreeceHumansItalyMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID35079022
PMCPMC8789777

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.