ArticleComputational and mathematical methods in medicine2022
Forecasting the Severity of COVID-19 Pandemic Amidst the Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Adoption of ARIMA Model.
Article in Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Research on Dynamic Outpatient Respiratory Nosocomial Infection Control Methods Through Multi-Data Prediction.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Article
- Unravelling the shift: exploring consumers' adoption or resistance of E-Pharmacy through behavioural reasoning theory.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Advancing Vaccinology Capacity: Education and Efforts in Vaccine Development and Manufacturing across Africa.Vaccines · 2024Review
- Development of a novel dynamic nosocomial infection risk management method for COVID-19 in outpatient settings.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Analysis and prediction of the incidence and prevalence trends of gonorrhea in China.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Article
- Epidemiological characteristics, spatial clusters and monthly incidence prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease from 2017 to 2022 in Shanxi Province, China.Epidemiology and infection · 2023Article
- Socioeconomic and demographic characteristics influencing the hesitancy and refusal of COVID-19 vaccine in Ghana.Therapeutic advances in vaccines and immunotherapy · 2023Article
- Comparative Evaluation of the Multilayer Perceptron Approach with Conventional ARIMA in Modeling and Prediction of COVID-19 Daily Death Cases.Journal of healthcare engineering · 2022Article
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Currently, the global report of COVID-19 cases is around 110 million, and more than 2.43 million related death cases as of February 18, 2021. Viruses continuously change through mutation; hence, different virus of SARS-CoV-2 has been reported globally. The United Kingdom (UK), South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria are the countries from which these emerged variants have been notified and now spreading globally. Therefore, these countries have been selected as a research sample for the present study. The datasets analyzed in this study spanned from March 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021, and were obtained from the World Health Organization website. The study used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast coronavirus incidence in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria. ARIMA models with minimum Akaike Information Criterion Correction (AICc) and statistically significant parameters were chosen as the best models in this research. Accordingly, for the new confirmed cases, ARIMA (3,1,14), ARIMA (0,1,11), ARIMA (1,0,10), and ARIMA (1,1,14) models were chosen for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. Also, the model specification for the confirmed death cases was ARIMA (3,0,4), ARIMA (0,1,4), ARIMA (1,0,7), and ARIMA (Brown); models were selected for the UK, South Africa, Brazil, and Nigeria, respectively. The results of the ARIMA model forecasting showed that if the required measures are not taken by the respective governments and health practitioners in the days to come, the magnitude of the coronavirus pandemic is expected to increase in the study's selected countries.
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