ArticleBulletin of mathematical biology2022
The Heterogeneous Severity of COVID-19 in African Countries: A Modeling Approach.
Article in Bulletin of mathematical biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- A vaccination model for COVID-19 with asymptomatic transmission, waning immunity, and outbreak calibration.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- A comparative analysis of infection and mortality in reassessing africa's COVID-19 dynamic using time-varying tests.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Temperature-based spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hand, foot, and mouth disease transmission in China.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 incidence in Algerian provinces using integrated nested Laplace approximations.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa.Royal Society open science · 2023Article
- A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Observed versus estimated actual trend of COVID-19 case numbers in Cameroon: A data-driven modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- COVID-19 impacts on healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa: an overview.The journal of venomous animals and toxins including tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Analysis of a COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Seasonality.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- A vaccination model for COVID-19 in Gauteng, South Africa.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- A Multiscale Model of COVID-19 Dynamics.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- Reduction in the infection fatality rate of Omicron variant compared with previous variants in South Africa.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2022Article
- The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa.PloS one · 2022Article
- Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2: A modeling analysis with high-and-moderate risk populations.Results in physics · 2021Article
- The Second Wave of COVID-19 in South and Southeast Asia and the Effects of Vaccination.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a considerable impact on global health and economics. The impact in African countries has not been investigated thoroughly via fitting epidemic models to the reported COVID-19 deaths. We downloaded the data for the 12 most-affected countries with the highest cumulative COVID-19 deaths to estimate the time-varying basic reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) and infection attack rate. We develop a simple epidemic model and fitted it to reported COVID-19 deaths in 12 African countries using iterated filtering and allowing a flexible transmission rate. We observe high heterogeneity in the case-fatality rate across the countries, which may be due to different reporting or testing efforts. South Africa, Tunisia, and Libya were most affected, exhibiting a relatively higher [Formula: see text] and infection attack rate. Thus, to effectively control the spread of COVID-19 epidemics in Africa, there is a need to consider other mitigation strategies (such as improvements in socioeconomic well-being, healthcare systems, the water supply, and awareness campaigns).
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