ArticleEpidemiology and infection2022
Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Predictors of Global Disparities in COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage - 219 Countries and Territories, December 2020-July 2022.China CDC weekly · 2024Article
- Early treatment with fluvoxamine, bromhexine, cyproheptadine, and niclosamide to prevent clinical deterioration in patients with symptomatic COVID-19: a randomized clinical trial.EClinicalMedicine · 2024Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: A free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 vaccine allocation comparison tool.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Covid19Vaxplorer: a free, online, user-friendly COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Comparison Tool.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- COVID-19 monitoring with sparse sampling of sewered and non-sewered wastewater in urban and rural communities.iScience · 2023Article
- Article
- Exploring the Social Trend Indications of Utilizing E-Commerce during and after COVID-19's Hit.Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- The COVID-19 Vaccination and Vaccine Inequity Worldwide: An Empirical Study Based on Global Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- How to control the spatiotemporal spread of Omicron in the region with low vaccination rates.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether and when the world can reach herd immunity and return to normal life and a strategy for accelerating vaccination programmes constitute major concerns. We employed Metropolis-Hastings sampling and an epidemic model to design experiments based on the current vaccinations administered and a more equitable vaccine allocation scenario. The results show that most high-income countries can reach herd immunity in less than 1 year, whereas low-income countries should reach this state after more than 3 years. With a more equitable vaccine allocation strategy, global herd immunity can be reached in 2021. However, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants means that an additional 83 days will be needed to reach global herd immunity and that the number of cumulative cases will increase by 113.37% in 2021. With the more equitable vaccine allocation scenario, the number of cumulative cases will increase by only 5.70% without additional vaccine doses. As SARS-CoV-2 variants arise, herd immunity could be delayed to the point that a return to normal life is theoretically impossible in 2021. Nevertheless, a more equitable global vaccine allocation strategy, such as providing rapid vaccine assistance to low-income countries/regions, can improve the prevention of COVID-19 infection even though the virus could mutate.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.