Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35062917›Full record

ArticleBMC psychiatry2022

Anticipating the direction of symptom progression using critical slowing down: a proof-of-concept study.

Marieke J Schreuder, Johanna T W Wigman, Robin N Groen, Els Weinans, Marieke Wichers, Catharina A Hartman

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC psychiatry, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Marieke J SchreuderDepartment of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Internal Postal Code: CC72, Triade Building Entrance 24, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, 9713, GZ, The Netherlands. m.j.schreuder@umcg.nl.ORCID 0000-0003-4901-2697
Johanna T W WigmanDepartment of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Internal Postal Code: CC72, Triade Building Entrance 24, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, 9713, GZ, The Netherlands.
Robin N GroenDepartment of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Internal Postal Code: CC72, Triade Building Entrance 24, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, 9713, GZ, The Netherlands.
Els WeinansDepartment of Industrial Engineering and Innovation Sciences, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands.
Marieke WichersDepartment of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Internal Postal Code: CC72, Triade Building Entrance 24, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, 9713, GZ, The Netherlands.
Catharina A HartmanDepartment of Psychiatry, Interdisciplinary Center Psychopathology and Emotion regulation (ICPE), University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Internal Postal Code: CC72, Triade Building Entrance 24, Hanzeplein 1, Groningen, 9713, GZ, The Netherlands.
University Medical Center Groningen · NLEindhoven University of Technology · NL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAs complex dynamic systems approach a transition, their dynamics change. This process, called critical slowing down (CSD), may precede transitions in psychopathology as well. This study investigated whether CSD may also indicate the direction of future symptom transitions, i.e., whether they involve an increase or decrease in symptoms.

methodsIn study 1, a patient with a history of major depression monitored their mental states ten times a day for almost eight months. Study 2 used data from the TRAILS TRANS-ID study, where 122 young adults at increased risk of psychopathology (mean age 23.64±0.67 years, 56.6% males) monitored their mental states daily for six consecutive months. Symptom transitions were inferred from semi-structured diagnostic interviews. In both studies, CSD direction was estimated using moving-window principal component analyses.

resultsIn study 1, CSD was directed towards an increase in negative mental states. In study 2, the CSD direction matched the direction of symptom shifts in 34 individuals. The accuracy of the indicator was higher in subsets of individuals with larger absolute symptom transitions. The indicator's accuracy exceeded chance levels in sensitivity analyses (accuracy 22.92% vs. 11.76%, z=-2.04, P=.02) but not in main analyses (accuracy 27.87% vs. 20.63%, z=-1.32, P=.09).

conclusionsThe CSD direction may predict whether upcoming symptom transitions involve remission or worsening. However, this may only hold for specific individuals, namely those with large symptom transitions. Future research is needed to replicate these findings and to delineate for whom CSD reliably forecasts the direction of impending symptom transitions.

Indexed as

Major Depressive DisorderPsychopathologyAdultFemaleHumansMaleProof of Concept StudyYoung AdultComplex systemsCritical slowing downDaily diary studyTransitions in psychopathology

Identifiers

PMID35062917
PMCPMC8781362
OpenAlexW4206284280

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.