ArticleFrontiers in public health2021
Estimating the Effects of Public Health Measures by SEIR(MH) Model of COVID-19 Epidemic in Local Geographic Areas.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Evaluating the Demand for Nucleic Acid Testing in Different Scenarios of COVID-19 Transmission: A Simulation Study.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2024Article
- Planning for healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southeast of England: a system dynamics modelling approach.BMJ open · 2023Article
- The lockdown and vaccination distribution in Thailand's COVID-19 epidemic: A model study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Design of effective outpatient sentinel surveillance for COVID-19 decision-making: a modeling study.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- A data-driven hybrid ensemble AI model for COVID-19 infection forecast using multiple neural networks and reinforced learning.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-21 has been a major challenge to public health systems worldwide. Mathematical models of epidemic are useful tools for assessment of the situation and for providing decision-making support for relevant authorities. We developed and implemented SEIR(MH) model that extends the conventional SEIR model with parameters that define public lockdown (the level and start of lockdown) and the medical system capacity to contain patients. Comparative modeling of four regions in Europe that have similar population sizes and age structures, but different public health systems, was performed: Baden-Württemberg, Lombardy, Belgium, and Switzerland. Modeling suggests that the most effective measure for controlling epidemic is early lockdown (exponential effect), followed by the number of available hospital beds (linear effect if the capacity is insufficient, with diminishing returns when the capacity is sufficient). Dynamic management of lockdown levels is likely to produce better outcomes than strict lockdown.
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