ArticleScientific reports2022
Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Contrasting pre-vaccine COVID-19 waves in Italy through functional data analysis.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Pediatrics advances in 2024: choices in allergy, cardiology, critical care, endocrinology, gastroenterology, immunology, infectious diseases, neonatology, nephrology, neurology, nutrition, palliative care respiratory tract illnesses, and social media.Italian journal of pediatrics · 2025Review
- COVID-19 could accelerate the decline in recreational hunting: A natural experiment from Northern Italy.PloS one · 2024Article
- Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population.European journal of public health · 2023Observational
- Gender differences in estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand.BMC public health · 2023Article
- The contribution of population age-sex structure to the excess mortality estimates of 2020-2021 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden.SSM - population health · 2023Article
- Deaths during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from regional patterns in Germany and Poland.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Although previous evidence suggests that the infection fatality rate from COVID-19 varies by age and sex, and that transmission intensity varies geographically within countries, no study has yet explored the age-sex-space distribution of excess mortality associated with the COVID pandemic. By applying the principles of small-area estimation to existing model formulations for excess mortality, this study develops a novel method for assessing excess mortality across small populations and assesses the pattern of COVID excess mortality by province, year, week, age group, and sex in Italy from March through May 2020. We estimate that 53,200 excess deaths occurred across Italy during this time period, compared to just 35,500 deaths where COVID-19 was registered as the underlying cause of death. Out of the total excess mortality burden, 97% of excess deaths occurred among adults over age 60, and 68% of excess deaths were concentrated among adults over age 80. The burden of excess mortality was unevenly distributed across the country, with just three of Italy's 107 provinces accounting for 32% of all excess mortality. This method for estimating excess mortality can be adapted to other countries where COVID-19 diagnostic capacity is still insufficient, and could be incorporated into public health rapid response systems.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.